Fleeing Russians Arrive in Khujand

Last Friday Anna and I were out at dinner.  During our meal a young couple sat down near us.  Fair-skinned and blond-haired, they didn't seem Tajik.  Beyond complexion, both were also wearing short jean shorts.  OK, definitely not Tajik.  We didn't interact with them but we overheard Russian.  Anna and I shared some looks with each other and talked quietly.

Are they Russian?  Are they here because of the mobilization?

Two days earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced a "partial mobilization" to bolster Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.  You probably don't need me to brief you anymore than this.  The mobilization announcement, Russia's first military draft since World War II, has sparked a mass exodus of Russians, mostly young men, from Russia.  A week later and it's estimated that nearly 200,000 Russians have fled the country.  

The main destinations for fleeing Russians have been Turkey, Georgia, and Kazakhstan.  These places make sense: Turkey is a big Russian travel spot served by dozens of flights while Georgia and Kazakhstan are neighbors.  The crush of migrants and snaking lines of cars at the Georgia border has grabbed the most headlines in western media, but here is a good article about the delicacy of the situation in Kazakhstan. 

Author's graphic, created on MapChart.net

The Russians are coming to Tajikistan too, albeit in lesser numbers.  Russia is a long drive from here, so I'm guessing most Russians are getting here by plane.  Khujand is the only other international airport in Tajikistan besides Dushanbe, with flights to dozens of Russian cities.  Our friends in Dushanbe report similar stuff as us, and seemingly on an even larger scale.  Hotels are all booked up; I'm sure it's welcome and unexpected money for proprietors.

At any rate, yes, the increased presence of Russians is extremely noticeable.  The  Khujand's major ethnic groups are Tajiks and then Uzbeks.  There was a large Russian minority here during Soviet times, but it's all but gone now.  Well, until this week at least.  Not unlike Anna and me, the Russians stick out here.  And yes, a lot of them have been wearing shorts.  A total giveaway.  It's been mostly men, by themselves, but we've also seen small groups and, much more rarely, men with a girlfriend or wife.  

It's hard not to wonder where this is all going in the long run.  Russians don't need a visa to visit Tajikistan and they can stay as long as they want.  Most former Soviet republics have similarly generous policies for Russian visitors, but only Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus permit indefinite stays.  As time passes though and visitation clocks tick down in places like Kazakhstan and Turkey, it'll be interesting to see if there's a secondary surge of fleeing Russians, moving from one place of refuge to another, such as here.  

It'll also be interesting to see how many Tajiks living abroad in Russia might return.  Remittances from work in Russia allegedly counts for one third of Tajikistan's entire GDP!  Many of these migrant workers might return from working in Russia, fearing, and rightfully so, that as ethnic minorities they might be recruited for the Russian army, military experience or not.  Also, by one count, one out of five of the estimated one million Tajiks working in Russia hold dual citizenship. For all of these reasons and others too, the western approach of harsh sanctions, already a tough pill to swallow in Central and Eastern European, was never a viable approach here in Central Asia.  It would have been political suicide.

Truthfully, I have a lot more to learn about this situation.  I'm pretty sure I'm getting things right in the bit of analysis I've done in this post, but if anyone spots errors please let me know.  I'm sure I'll come back to this topic with updates.

Turning inward now to our feelings, we knew we would see Russians coming here.  I've wondered if there was even more Russian tourism over the summer than usual.  During out first week here, we saw lots of Russians at our hotel in Dushanbe and didn't think much of it.  We didn't feel unsafe around them or anything.  We also didn't engage with them. 

And we haven't engaged with the Russians here as of yet either.  We want to though, with caution, yes, but above all care.  It certainly helps that our Russian is improving.  Simple, human kindness feels like a very important value to share at this time.  These are also people who are suffering from Putin's tyranny.  When you walk by dozens of these people over the course of the day it's very hard not to feel for them.  I'll keep you all posted.  This has been an unexpected new dynamic to our Tajikistan experience.